Welcome to January and its stunning lack of surprises

Just Tapped 

This is another slow news week as we creep into the new year. I'll be brief again this week. Things will pick up steam as January rolls along. I have one story to share with you today and it isn't exactly happy news. Then again, the future is what you make of it. Read on.

Why you should and should not care about the BPI

When you stare into the steely-cold and lifeless eyes of January, the driest of all months, do you get a knot in your stomach? A bit of beer-sales anxiety? If so, the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) just validated your uneasy feelings. The Association recently released its Beer Purchasers' Index (BPI) for December and it shows that distributors are expecting soft sales in January and have adjusted their purchases accordingly. No surprise, right?

Each month, the NBWA releases the BPI. The index surveys beer distributors’ purchases each month and compares them to the same month last year. It's an indication of how much beer the nation's wholesalers expect to sell in the coming month. The BPI is not a prognostication about your business in particular. That said, you should understand what the wholesalers are thinking. That's why we share the BPI each month. (Learn more about the BPI.)

So here’s the big ouch. December’s BPI represents a historic low. The reading of 30 applies to the entire beer segment: craft, import, premium light, premium regular, and so on. Breaking it down, the BPI reading for craft beer was even more dismal at 24. This month’s reading is craft’s most significant low since 2015. 

We should not get wrapped up in the pessimism, but we can't ignore what the BPI says about "changing retailer and consumer demand." The BPI is “an appropriate outlook and strategy for distributors," but that does not mean it is an appropriate outlook and strategy for you. These BPI numbers are just another sign that things are changing, not a sign that craft beer has been defeated.

Maybe it sounds like I'm finding rainbows in a crap storm, but anyone who is in the craft beer biz recognizes that things are changing. Beer consumers are changing. There are forces at work that we've yet to recognize. We'll figure it out. Sure, the BPI for December is pretty ugly, as it has been for the past few months, but your future is not written in stone. Keep your head up and your shoulders back. We will get through this. Moving forward, The Taster Tray aims to provide awareness and insight to help you succeed. 

Thank You!

As we bravely trek into the new year, I'd like to thank you for subscribing to The Taster Tray. Help us grow by referring some friends and colleagues (see below). We sure do appreciate it. And don't forget to leave some feedback, too. 

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This week's Taster Tray was composed by Kendall Jones.