What's inside the beer consumer's head? How will this year's hop crop trickle down to the tap? More...

Just Tapped 

This week I am going to tell you about a shift in consumer thinking, one that applies directly to craft beer in a very interesting way. Also, I'll explain why some kinds of IPA may be a bit more difficult to get next year. I'd like to take this opportunity to ask you to refer some friends or colleagues to subscribe to The Taster Tray. Help us share our version of beer love. Read on.

What Are They Thinking?

If you want to sell them beer, you need to understand the way they think about beer. The Paradox of Choice Revisited is a recently released study from First Key, a leading brewing and beverage industry consulting firm. The study suggests that trends are shifting in an unexpected way as new generations of craft beer consumers come of age. 

One of craft beer’s strong suits has always been the promise of choice, offering consumers a vast array of flavors and styles, but today there’s a new kind of beer consumer entering the craft-beer-buying sweet spot. Millennials are now reaching middle age and Gen Zers are hitting young adulthood. According to the study, “Both generations have helped pioneer a newfound desire for simplicity in daily life.” This desire for simplicity is reflected in their consumer habits and, apparently, in the way they think about beer.

Surprisingly, the report uses the ever-growing popularity of IPA as an example of this kind of thinking. The report notes that both the softening performance of craft beer as a whole and the surging share of IPAs within craft might well be traceable to this newfound desire for simplified choices. 

I’ve witnessed this firsthand more than once. We probably all know people who identify as IPA drinkers, not craft beer drinkers. They walk into the bar, look at the 32-beer tap list and say, “I’ll have an IPA,” without any concern for details. Craft beer veterans, like me, roll our eyes and shake our heads. If we want to sell them beer, we shouldn't dismiss this kind of behavior so easily. We should consider it. 

I am just scratching the surface of what you'll find in The Paradox of Choice Revisited. What does it mean for the craft beer industry? How should taprooms and breweries react? I don’t know that there is a simple answer to either of those questions. I see possibilities, not roadblocks; certainly, translating those possibilities into prosperity will require some consideration and intention. I strongly encourage you to read the study. 

The Hop Report's Trickle-Down Effect

As the year stumbles its way toward the finish line, the USDA just released its National Hop Report. It wasn't dismal, but 2022 was not a banner year for the nation's hop crop. There's one piece of info that stands out to me because it will probably impact what kind of IPAs you can get your hands on next year.

The 2022 hop crop was negatively impacted by an uncommonly cold and wet spring in the Yakima Valley, which supplied 71 percent of the year's hop crop. In the end, overall hop production was down a bit in terms of acreage, but more importantly, the yield was down significantly in 2022. Roughly, a 10 percent drop in yield. (Yield is the measurement of the amount of a crop grown per acre.) 

So how will low yield trickle down to the tap? This situation probably won't impact beers brewed using the most common hops. Consider Washington state, where hop farmers dedicated 54 percent of their acreage to five varieties: Citra, CTZ, Mosaic, Cascade, and Simcoe. All other varieties, about 30 of them, shared the remaining 46 percent of the acreage. 

IPAs brewed using Citra and Mosaic, for instance, probably won't feel too much impact, but you might have trouble getting that crazy-good, newfangled IPA brewed with Zappa and Talus hops. In other words, you might see fewer one-off, experimental IPAs brewed with less-common hop varieties. 

Of course, the situation could impact some pricing too. Most breweries have hop contracts with their suppliers, which locks in their prices for years at a time. At the same time, smaller breweries may not have contracts, and hop contracts may not cover all varieties. The spot market, the non-contracted hop market, is where prices will likely go up. So, yeah, it might be a rough year for those goofy, crazy, newfangled IPAs. See the complete, detailed USDA report here. 

Around the Web 

• Kirin says it's looking to expand its craft beer business in North America. That means they're shopping for craft breweries.

• Brewers Association pulls the plug on Savor, it's annual beer+food festival.

• A jury will decide the winner of a trademark wrestling match between Groupo Modelo and Constellation Brands. It's all about the definition of the word beer.

Geek Speak 

CTZ Hops - Earlier in this week's newsletter I mentioned CTZ hops. CTZ is an acronym, or initialism, for a trio of similar, nearly identical hops: Columbus, Tomahawk, and Zeus. Some brewers use the term CTZ. Others use the name applied by their supplier. One supplier, Hopsteiner, refers to its product as Columbus/Tomahawk. Yakima Chief Hops calls it CTZ. Whatever you call it, it’s a high-alpha variety that can produce strong bitterness but also some desirable aromatic qualities. Learn all about CTZ hops here.   

Say What?

We really do appreciate your feedback. We need it, actually, as we continue to build The Taster Tray. That's why we encourage you to take the super-simple feedback poll below.

Reader feedback from last week's Taster Tray: "I was very sad when I heard of the Lagunitas closing, as I always enjoyed my visits there (and their beer). But the Schmaltz news is great! I've enjoyed their beer and I am excited by their new trajectory. Thanks for reporting this!" — captaninv@...

Feedback

This week's Taster Tray was composed by Kendall Jones.